Yesterday's stunning news that longtime New York Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, the state's most powerful Republican, would retire, has sent political shockwaves through New York State, and set off rounds of speculation on the future of the hotly contested Senate.

His decision did not appear to be related to a federal investigation of his outside business interests, according to people with knowledge of the investigation.

But there was little doubt that Mr. Bruno had grown fatigued in recent months, worn down by the two-year investigation, the increasing stress over whether his party could hold on to its one-seat majority in the Senate, and the death in January of his wife of 57 years, Bobbie.

"After 32 years in office, I have decided that it is time to move on with my life and to give my constituents an opportunity for new representation and my colleagues in the Senate who have supported me an opportunity for new leadership," Mr. Bruno said in a statement. He added: "Politics is a tough ballgame. Tougher now than it has ever been."

What remains unclear is what effect his retirement will have on his fellow Senators.

After the 2006 elections, Republicans enjoyed a 34-28 advantage in the State Senate, a chamber they had controlled since 1965 (and of which Bruno had served as Republican leader since 1995).

Since then, Democrats have won two special-election victories to close the gap even further. In 2006, Governor Eliot Spitzer created an open seat in the Seventh District by appointing Republican Sen. Michael Balboni as Deputy Director of Public Safety; Democrat Craig Johnson won the special election to succeed Balboni.

Both state parties have pressured Senators from vulnerable districts not to seek new jobs since Johnson's election, but Republican James Wright retired from the 48th District seat to become a lobbyist. His seat was considered safe, but Democrat Darrel Aubertine won the election to succeed him, becoming the first Democrat to represent the area in the Senate since 1880. (Yes, you read that right).

The New York GOP is already backed up on its heels, of course. At the federal level, they control just six U.S. House seats out of 29, and they are likely to lose at least two of those seats and possibly as many as four this fall. With Democrats solidly in control over the Governor's office, the State Assembly, and both U.S. Senate seats, the State Senate under the feisty leadership of Joe Bruno is the last bastion of GOP strength in New York.

There's no telling what effect Bruno's retirement will have on the Senate GOP caucus, a group that has demonstrated dogged loyalty to Bruno over the past 12 years. The Albany Project's Robert Harding notes that several Senators have been pressured hard not to retire, or run for higher office:

The ramifications of Bruno's decision not to seek reelection can be seen far and wide and aren't limited to just the Republican senators. One example of this can be seen in my home congressional district, New York's 26th. Sen. George Maziarz was considered a top candidate for the GOP in NY-26 but passed on the opportunity to stay in the Senate. You can also look at the race in NY-13, where Andrew Lanza would make an intriguing candidate on the GOP side but had been asked by Bruno not to run in the past.

Obviously though, the primary impact is on the GOP senators. Many senators have stuck around because Bruno, a 32 year veteran of the Senate, kept going. Sen. Caesar Trunzo from the 3rd Senate District is 82 years old. His seat is being challenged, but he could very well bow out now that Bruno is leaving.

Robert lists five other Senate Republicans who have been considered strong retirement possibilities in the past. Without Bruno pressuring them to stay, we may witness a flood of Senate retirements either this year or in the near future.

A likely successor to Bruno is Senator Dean Skelos of Long Island: it's rumored that Republicans in Albany have already tabbed Skelos for the job, for which he has been lobbying. Now, the New York Times says Skelos is the guy.

Bruno's open seat, of course, is another topic of speculation. Republicans have a registration advantage of just under 20,000 in Senate District 43, but Democrats have done well in the area at the federal level. Bush edged Kerry in the counties that make up SD-43 by roughly one point, and both of the U.S. House members representing segments of SD-43 are Democrats (Kirsten Gillibrand and Michael McNulty). Bruno's influence should certainly be of considerable aid to his Republican successor, but I think it's certainly reasonable for a strong Democratic candidate to take this seat. So Senate Republicans must not only deal with the loss of their longtime captain, but will have to work to defend an open seat they absolutely cannot afford to lose.

If Bruno's retirement does signal a likely Democratic takeover of the State Senate, we are in for a truly historic election this fall. It will mark the end of decades of split government in New York and Republican dominance over the Senate, and it will serve as a crushing blow to the sputtering New York Republican Party. Like the national GOP itself, New York Republicans seem only to find themselves facing longer and longer odds in their uphill battle to stave off irrelevance.

When bitter-to-the-end Hillary Rodham Clinton returns to her day job I hope she understands the enormity of the firestorm she has set off amongst Progressive Democrats this primary season and that it will last and continue to grow. Add yesterday’s revelations and believe me Hillary has a future opponent in all of us that will grow even larger - haunt her for a very long time to come and never go away. Her actions will have consequences for her that lead directly to her 2012 New York Senate re-election campaign.

A lot of speculation lately about Hillary trying to knee-cap Obama's chances this year so that she can run in 2012.  Maybe that's what is in her mind but that's not how it's going to work.  First, if Obama loses this year in the GE, blame will be placed at Hillary's feet for "endorsing" McCain so often in this process.  She will be the new Nader.  Nobody will want her to run in 2012.  And if she DID try to make a run in 2012, she would not be able to run for Senate.  So if she lost the nomination process for President, she would not have a Senate seat to fall back on.  Likely there will be a Democratic challenger for her seat.  It's hard to imagine her giving up public office completely.  Maybe she hasn't thought about this prospect very much.  However, one way to get her, and everybody else, to start thinking about that simple fact is to start drumming up support for a challenger RIGHT NOW.

In the middle of a blinding snowstorm, no less.  I'm sure there are a few Kossacks from the North Country who can confirm this, but it snowed like nobody's business all day yesterday.  We in the Utica/Rome area south of the 48th got about a foot of snow; I hear the North Country probably got at least double that.  The Republican candidate, Will Barclay, must really have sucked hard to get beat in a district where Democrats are outnumbered two to one in really shitty weather.

It goes to show what motivated Democrats can do against complacent Republicans.  I saw a few of the ads, and Barclay's were of the usual "Elect Democrat Party liberal commie Darrel Aubertine and we're all going to die" vein.  I also heard on NPR that North Country voters really disliked this sort of campaign.  It's why we now have Michael Arcuri in the 24th U.S. House district, and it's probably why Barclay got pwned 52-48 in a district he should have won in a walk.  Will Republicans learn from this?  Don't bet on it.

It looks as if Darrel Aubertine has won the special election for New York's 48th Senate district seat over Will Barclay.  With almost all districts reporting in, Aubertine has a firm 2500-vote lead which is probably not going to suffer a challenge from uncounted absentee ballots.

If you haven't been following this "insignificant" state race, it has broad implications for the political future of America's third most populous state, as the Democrats now appear to be within ONE seat of controlling the state legislature for the first time in decades.  In other words, this would be a huge win for Eliot Spitzer and a crushing (perhaps final) defeat for Joe Bruno.

More importantly, this election took place in one of New York's most rural Senate districts, where a heavy snowstorm did not faze a huge turnout of Democrats and independents who came out to vote for Aubertine.  

You can read more coverage at The Albany Project or the Watertown Daily Times.

Today, the New York State Senate on its second to last day of session decided to waste time on voting for a new death penalty bill that has no chance of passing. This is despite the fact that New York has the dubious distinction of leading the nation with Texas in wrongful convictions.

The Albany Times Union has come out this morning with a comprehensive review of the federal criminal investigation into the interwined business and political activities of Joseph Bruno, New York's Republican State Senate majority leader:

Brian Keeler brought the netroots revolution to the Hudson River Valley yesterday. We haven't had any battles for democracy around here in, like, two hundred and thirty years, so it's great to see how the technology's improved. From bayonets to the Internets!

Another big difference: our enemy's not the British, but the Brutish. The Greedy, the Corrupt, the Bigoted, the Benighted, the Befuddled. They've hijacked our country and turned it into a craven corporatocracy. They've destroyed our nation's reputation for fairness and decency. They've dragged us so far down into the muck that while Superman's still fighting for truth and justice, he's crossed defending "the American Way" off his to-do list.

But we don't need a superhero to save our democracy when we've got a guy like Brian Keeler campaigning for NY State Senate. NYBri, as Kossacks know him, is brimming with brains, energy and idealism. He rallied a roomful of Dutchess County dems and fellow Kossacks at Rhinebeck's Desperado café yesterday.