Very intersting vid ironically exposing Fox news for its own "character and conduct." Found it on the social networking site liveleak. Expect the second half to be even better.

-As described by talking monkey"
"Fox News Channel aired the first of two presidential candidate documentaries called "Character and Conduct." First up: Barack Obama, whose documentary pretends really hard that it's not full of stereotypes and insinuations."

Why should anyone assume that John McCain is anymore "ready" or "able" to be President than Barack Obama?  Finally,  Jack Cafferty and Frank Rich are starting to ask this obvious question.

Years ago AU Political Scientist Allan Lichtman (Disclaimer: He ran for US Senate in MD as Democrat in 2006, but lost the primary to the eventual winner, Senator Ben Cardin) created The Keys to the Presidency. Based on complicated statistical research, Lichtman uses these keys to predict the winners of presidential elections. He claims that it has worked for every election since 1861.

(One key point: It predicts popular vote winners, not electoral college winners. So while it "worked" in 1876, 1888, and 2000, the electoral college said otherwise.)

More beneath the fold.

I'm getting scared at these polls that show downward trends for Barack Obama. And I'm getting angry at the thought of my beautiful daughters growing up in the midst of yet another rich, clueless Republican invasion and occupation of the People's House at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
It's time for another letter to the Obama campaign.

There has been alot written in the recent past about the tightening of the polls.  Then we hear about the 80,000 expected to hear Sen. Obama's speech versus the small numbers that show up for McCain.  Obama gets $51 million versus $27 million for McCain.  Two million new donors for Obama and some new fancy "bundlers" for McCain.

What gives?

Obama should start using a simple attack line.

I am worried and am putting this out there to see if maybe I'm overreacting. I need some Kos help!

Until recently I was excited about the prospect of watching the Democratic National Convention. Now I am less sure. We all know that the Obama and Clinton camps have come to some sort of an agreement and have decided to enter Hillary’s name into nomination. Then a floor vote will be taken.  Of course Hillary has not yet released her delegates, and some say they need a "catharsis".  Will they in the end support Barack?  Some will, but how many? Will this vote be a sad parenthesis in the proceedings?

I felt on Feb. 5th that we could have a dream team for the Democratic Party. It was pretty exciting at that time to have two great candidates. We know how that went down. And now some kind of terrific team seems less likely.  Who will the V.P. be?  We need someone great. Is someone there in the wings, and did Obama pick him or her?

I am originally from Chicago, IL and since I have a strong feeling about my former State Capital, that Obama seems to share, what possible VP candidate also fits that bill?

More after the jump.

Okay, since every blogger here has had their shot at VP speculation, I thought I would give it a shot. I know most people are sick of the speculation, but I think i have a pick that has not been posted here yet. Picture this (Parts taken from Lynn Sweet via Ben Smith at Politico):

The Obama team, in the run-up to the Democratic convention, will showcase the new Obama ticket Saturday in Springfield at the Old State Capitol, where presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) officially kicked off his campaign in February, 2007. State of Illinois authorities have beens asked permission by Obama folks to reserve the historic spot at noon.

So, approximately 1 pm Eastern time, in what is the bicentennial of Abraham Lincoln, music begins playing and a huge banner unrolls reading "Obama / Lincoln 2008"! The symbolism of this unveiling at the place where Lincoln stated "A House Divided Cannot Stand" and began the journey towards ending slavery would be incredible.

McCain continues to hammer Obama on his oppostion to the surge, claiming that "he would rather lose a war than a political campaign."

Gee, really?  Let's look back at who else was unpatriotic.

Brief Diary, but WTF?  Newsweek has this feature article (4 pages nonetheless!) to expose how Obama is distorting McCain's quotes and taking them out of context.

An interesting set of polls from FiveThirtyEight confirms the fears of some Obama Veep watchdogs: that Joe Biden is not that popular with voters. So while his stock is rising on Intrade, that may be more of political junkies sniffing the mainstream media buzz rather than people genuinely getting hot for Biden. And while speculation on this blog and others has reached somewhat of a ridiculous high and while this appears to be all coming to a close within the next 24-48 hours, I thought I would add another point to the never-ending conversation about who Obama is going to pick as his vice presidential nominee.

I’ve been giving thought to the Saddleback event and some of the comments here, and in the media on the "Evil" question.  I’d like to offer an idea for the community to discuss.

This is not all that complex – The temple is our government – particularly congress.  The moneychangers are the lobbyists,  In my view Obama might be able to make some headway with the Christian Right by using this meme -  "Just as Jesus recognized evil – moneychanger in the temple in Jerusalem and drove them out, we need to recognize the modern equivalent – lobbyists who have taken up residence in our modern temple – the government."  

Now John McCain has long talked the talk – but when it is time to walk the walk instead of working to drive the lobbyists out he has instead invited them into his tent.  

We know what Jesus would do – but What Will John Do?  

Is this an idea that has any value?  I’d appreciate your thoughts.    

Per Lynn Sweet of the Sun-Times http://blogs.suntimes.com/...

The Obama campaign made it official on Tuesday afternoon--Obama stops at the Old State Capitol in Springfield to kick off a tour of battleground states in the run up to the Democratic convention in Denver.

As the 'not so angry black man', is Obama in a position in which his VP's personality will play into voter's perceptions of leadership and race?  Will the VP become Obama's stand-in for voter's pop psychology tests on acceptable presidential flaws?

Not since Jimmy Carter has America seen such a cool laid-back character as Obama.  If ignoring party, policy, and possibly race, Obama is seemingly the perfect candidate: handsome, pleasant, intelligent, well-spoken, and having a 'command presence'.  But is he too perfect to be trusted?    

Perhaps America is waiting to see Obama lose his cool before we elect him.  As a country, we have chosen (and re-elected) very fallible leaders - from Reagan psychics to Clinton hanky-panky to Bush simpleness.  Certainly McCain's 'flaw' is easy to read, that temper is quite evident under the surface, especially if you're told that's what McCain's vaguely uncomfortable aura represents.

Gather ye round and note! Or, hark! Michael Goldfard, 1st Level Douchebag of the McCain campaign has won yet another initiative roll, and has attacked with his Blog of Idiocy!

Off with your tin-foil hats, lefties.  Bush ain’t gonna find sanctuary in Paraguay no more.  It’s his own fault really, because he failed to put freedom and democracy on the march down there.  It’s hard work to be President.  So many wars; so little time.

We tend to be a bit obsessive about polls here (the title being the headline of Greg Sargent's posting at TPM today).  We also tend to want to offer advice to our candidate and his campaign, although many would say just sit back and relax; let the pros handle it.
 
On the first point, polls (with their inherent flaws and limitations) are feedback and feedback tells you something about how you're doing at a moment in time.  So I do believe you need to pay attention to them and try to read the tea leaves underneath the top line numbers.  We may see white noise or we may see cause and effect - at least a little - in play here with this latest report on the state of play in the race.

On the second point, where many would say just sit back and relax - good advice, thank you.  However, I also post on the Miami Dolphins sports pages blog just what a mess the offensive (or defensive) coaches made of their supposed "game plan" that Sunday - so in the spirit of true Monday Morning Quarterback-itis, I will have to take a pass on sitting back and relaxing.