I just had to pass on this link to a new NYT story about the Clinton campaign's plans to use the Rodham family's working-class background in Scranton to solidify her status there in favorable parts of Pennsylvania.

http://www.nytimes.com/...

The comment I'd like to make on this:  In 2000, Hillary ran for Senator, where it was thought (and rightly so) that Upstate New York would tough ground for her to take.  It didn't turn out to be, so much; she was pretty successful at playing First Lady and keeping Bill highly visible on a leash.  That worked... eight years ago.

However, if she'd ever used the "Scranton strategy" with Upstate voters, it probably would have worked very well for her.  Although there are no coal mines here, a lot of Upstate New York is in the so-called "Dunder Mifflin Triangle" - same working-class history, hit by the same globalization forces, same determination to survive.

The most powerful Democratic bloc of voters?  A lot of theories have been advanced about this, but let's look at who really has power during a time of increasing economic turmoil... that would be the Democratic voters who are financially and physically secure.

Not necessarily the young ones.  Not necessarily the ones from this or that state.  Not necessarily the well-connected ones.  Not necessarily the well-educated ones.  But the financially and physically secure ones.

Not necessarily wealthy.  However, decoupled from the vicissitudes of the collapsing housing bubble; not facing any major mortgage payments or student debt; maybe with just a sawbuck in their wallet today, and living in an unfashionable neighborhood or "just getting by" - but getting by on their own resources, more or less, not so much on borrowed ones.

More thoughts below...

It looks as if Darrel Aubertine has won the special election for New York's 48th Senate district seat over Will Barclay.  With almost all districts reporting in, Aubertine has a firm 2500-vote lead which is probably not going to suffer a challenge from uncounted absentee ballots.

If you haven't been following this "insignificant" state race, it has broad implications for the political future of America's third most populous state, as the Democrats now appear to be within ONE seat of controlling the state legislature for the first time in decades.  In other words, this would be a huge win for Eliot Spitzer and a crushing (perhaps final) defeat for Joe Bruno.

More importantly, this election took place in one of New York's most rural Senate districts, where a heavy snowstorm did not faze a huge turnout of Democrats and independents who came out to vote for Aubertine.  

You can read more coverage at The Albany Project or the Watertown Daily Times.

Or, "Kumbaya Ain't Gonna Do It This Time."

Regardless of who gets the Democratic nomination and who wins the general election, I think it's safe to say there's going to be a lot of disgruntled people out there still upset that the most progressive candidate didn't win.

If Obama gets the nomination, what will disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters do?  How will they reorganize?  What sort of private little wars will they get into with the Republican right, and how destructive to political stability will they be?  Will Obama be able to lead the Democratic Party?  Will he be able to control any street skirmishes beyond Washington between diehard old Clintonites and their diehard old conservative enemies?

I hadn't seen this diaried or commented on here, but thought I would pass on these observations on Obama and the white Catholic vote - a so-called "Catechism Gap":

http://polysigh.blogspot.com/...

http://polysigh.blogspot.com/...

If there really is one, it would explain why Obama didn't win Massachusetts and why Ted Kennedy's endorsement didn't seem to hold much water.

The blogger at Polysigh seems to think this trend might put Obama at a definite disadvantage in Ohio and Pennsylvania, which he points out as culturally similar to NY and MA and with significant percentages of Democrats who are white Catholics.

 What do you think?  And why is this happening?  (racism, class divide, or something else?)

Rep. Jim Walsh's break with the White House on the war, diaried yesterday here, was obviously not an overnight decision but had been planned for some time, with his trip to Iraq over the weekend obviously just a formality.  The headline on today's Syracuse Post-Standard is My Iraq Journal, by Jim Walsh, in which the nine-term Congressman lays out in full detail (perhaps deeply annoying and disingenuous, to Democrats) his rationale.  

Walsh, of course, is facing a second serious challenge for his seat from Dan Maffei in NY-25, so his political reasons for doing this are pretty transparent.  The guy desperately wants to keep his job.  However, this article is worth reading only because it shows how the mind of a rank-and-file Republican works, and also probably reflects the attitudes of many Americans who initially supported the war.  

I know this isn't really a state politics site, but there are so many New Yorkers who post here, that I am curious to know everyone's take on the Eliot Spitzer situation.  Yes, my diary title is probably objectionable to some.  Bruno isn't exactly smelling like a rose either, and the whole thing stinks.  But what else do you call it when a governor who swept into office riding mainly on an image of ethical reform and "law and order" winds up embroiled in an embarrassing scandal that gets uglier by the hour?  (For those not up to date on what's going on, here's a link to today's developments.)

This sentiment was inspired by a diary on Booman Tribune that I read...

For all of its sturm und drang... does the progressive blogosphere actually have a concrete declaration of sentiments and aims put together?  Not necessarily a "platform" -- just a simple, articulable manifesto?

For the last four or five years, the blogosphere has been  nauseatingly crammed with talk about "movements" -- either of bloggers, of political parties, or of candidates -- and yet, when you ask about where the manifestos for these movements are, all you get is a blank look.

"We're having a conference in New York," someone will say to you.

Great.  When will the manifesto be presented?

"We're having breakaway working groups.  You can sign up for as many as you want.  And then, the keynote event will be an address by [insert famous politician name here]."

Terrific.  When will you read the manifesto?

"Huh?"

The Post-Standard reports this morning:

Dan Gage, Walsh's spokesman, said he was not impressed by Maffei's early challenge.

"Mr. Maffei offers nothing other than blind ambition," Gage said. "Clearly, the premature timing of his announcement suggests he is motivated purely by his own self-interest, not Central New York's. People are sick and tired of campaigning, and nobody likes a rerun."

Well, actually I am sick and tired of the endless campaign and think it can ultimately come to no good, but I so enjoyed watching little Jimmy sweat it out last time, so this time should be double the fun.  Tally-HOOOOOOO!

I can't believe no one is writing about the untimely death of Saparmurat Niyazov, father of all Turkmen, aka the Turkmenbashi.  

Before we start the 100 days of official mourning and writing about what this means for U.S.-Russian jockeying for power over Turkmenistan's gas reserves, let us bow our heads and remember some of his golden words...

Farmers, agricultural scientists, agricultural workers and the people of independent neutral Turkmenistan... I would like to whole-heartedly congratulate you on the remarkable national holiday – Turkmen Melon Day. I would like to wish each of you good health, long and wonderful like Turkmen melons life.  Turkmen melon – a pure streamlet flowing out of the Turkmen source of profusion, Turkmen melon – the fruit whose flavour is compared with nothing else in the world as it absorbed the warmth of our generous land, it is painted by the golden rays of the Turkmen sun, it matured under the clear Turkmen sky and is imbued with the pure air of the Turkmen desert. That is why it so juicy, so sweet, so incomparably delicious and flavoured!

I can't go on.